Tag Archive: Ryan Arp

  1. Phoenix is Rising, But Can it Continue?

    The Greater Phoenix market remains one of the top in the nation in terms of population and job growth, but growth in residential building permits during the first half of 2015 may not serve as an indicator for what is to come. Our Senior Vice President Ryan Arp has been busy helping builders plan for their next position in the market, but is noticing a few trends that local industry professionals face as they make their next strategic move. Consider the following:

    Rays of Light

    There are a number of factors and trends that are occurring in Phoenix that indicate market strength, such as:

    • 30% year-to-date growth in single family building permits, the strongest in years and on pace with ASU’s Blue Chip Forecast of over 14,000 permits for the year
    • 101 new home projects opened for sale in Maricopa County alone in 2015
    • Multiple new master plans open for sale, such as Mulberry by Blandford Homes in Mesa (four product lines priced from the $200s) and Meridian by William Lyon Homes in Queen Creek (three product lines priced from the $100s)
    • Strong selling infill attached projects, such as Aerium by Landmark USA (priced from the $400s) and ENVY by Deco (priced from the $300s), both in Scottsdale
    • An Employment to Permit (E/P) Ratio of 3.9, which is strong considering that a ratio of about 1.2 is considered balanced – see the following table for a comparison of how Phoenix stacks up relative to other growing metropolitan areas:

    Source: Zonda

    Clouds on the Horizon

    The points above are certainly positive, but builders are also dealing with rising materials costs, inflated land prices and labor shortages. The majority of builders have worked through their impaired land assets and are currently building through the assets they purchased in 2012-2013. Often many of these parcels were underwritten assuming some level of market appreciation, but if appreciation rates for that given submarket did not materialize as expected, then margins on communities could see additional compression. In addition, some builders are experiencing expanded cycle times, and have employed a strategy of putting more spec homes on the ground to reach year-end numbers. The result of these compressed margins and longer build times could be a slowdown in permits as we enter the final quarter of 2015. Further, with the weaker Canadian dollar, we are seeing a slowdown in the presence of Canadian buyers.

    While challenges and growing pains will continue to be a reality for the local market, our research and experience (and the relative value that Phoenix offers compared to higher priced areas in nearby California) suggests that the proverbial sun will shine brightly on the Valley for some time to come.

    Ryan Arp, Senior Vice President of Advisory Phoenix
    EMAIL RYAN  |  RYAN’S PROFILE

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  2. Meyers Advisory Team Expands Into Key Markets

    We are delighted to announce further expansion of the advisory group with the addition of three Senior Vice Presidents. Murat Mayor, Michael Rinner, and Ryan Arp collectively enhance the team’s capabilities and further expand its operations in Washington D.C., Denver, and Phoenix. Each person shares our values and our focus on providing strategic answers for the real estate development industry. We expect that they will play a prominent role in 2015 continuing to transform our advisory practice and expand our geographic footprint in key housing markets.

    Murat Mayor – Senior Vice President, Washington D.C.
    Contact Information

    Murat will have oversight of the strategic direction, expansion and operation of the firm’s advisory practice on the East Coast. Formerly the business strategist for of Weyerhaeuser Real Estate Company and Winchester Homes, he provided insights on the company’s strategic planning, future forecasting, economic & market analysis on a national, regional, and local level. Murat completed several international market research & analysis projects for large scale mixed use developments in Europe & Asia. He has a rich educational background with a Ph.D. in architecture from Boston University, as well as a Ph.D. in business from Kennedy W. University.

    Michael Rinner Senior Vice President, Denver
    Contact Information

    Michael will oversee the expansion of the firm’s advisory services into the Colorado market. Michael has 25 years of experience in real estate as an appraiser and an analyst in the Rocky Mountain region. He previously served as a director for the appraisal firm Butler Burger Group and was Vice President at The Genesis Group for 15 years. He holds a degree in economics from the University of Kansas and maintains the MAI and AI-GRS designations of the Appraisal Institute.

    Ryan Arp Senior Vice President, Phoenix
    Contact Information

    Ryan will expand Meyers’ advisory footprint into the Arizona market, one of the nation’s largest housing markets. He has a broad range of experience in homebuilding as a land broker and in land acquisition for a publicly traded homebuilder.  Ryan has provided advisory services to top-tier homebuilders and land investors in the Phoenix market.  He also brings a unique skill set to Meyers with a strong background in GIS-based research tools, aiding in the visualization of strategic opportunities.  Ryan holds a master’s degree in Anthropology from Brandeis University and a bachelor’s degree from Arizona State University.

     

    ABOUT MEYERS RESEARCH

    Meyers Research is a residential real estate consulting practice and a leading data provider for the housing industry headquartered in Beverly Hills, CA with 7 offices in the U.S. As a trusted advisor in for-sale and multifamily markets, the company offers a national perspective as well as local expertise to homebuilders, land and institutional developers, investment and commercial banks, private equity managers and attorneys.

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