Aug 14, 2019

Housing Trends

More Money More Problems? Not For These Markets

The US economy hit the longest stretch of job growth on record at 105 consecutive months, which means positive demand trends for housing. Strong employment is the key to a healthy housing market, but not all jobs are created equal.

The lion’s share of markets with the most growth in professional jobs over the past five years are in the South, matching trends we are seeing elsewhere in the economy. The top markets include Orlando, Austin, and Las Vegas. .

When looking at the top ten markets with the most high-income job growth: 

  • There’s room for more household formations. More than half have a local homeownership rate below the national average of 64%. Charlotte’s homeownership rate is the highest at 68%.
  • Watch relative affordability. Three of the top five metros nationwide for worsening affordability year-over-year are in high-income growth markets: Las Vegas, Seattle, and Nashville.
  • Local incomes should rise. Only Seattle and Austin, driven by tech employment, fall in the top third of metros in the country for median household income. The shift in employment in the other markets is helping wages, but four of the ten have an average household income below $60,000.
  • The trend continues in 2019. Orlando, Dallas, Charlotte, Austin, and San Antonio are still outperforming other top metros for high-income job growth when looking at June 2018 compared to June 2019. Newcomers on the 2019 list include Salt Lake City, Denver, San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville. 

Challenging Stereotypes

Orlando, Las Vegas, and San Antonio are quintessential tourism markets in the US. While the stigma is hard to shake, those markets have gained traction outside the sector throughout this cycle.

For example, Orlando has one of the highest sales rates in the country, is a top market for Baby Chasers, ticks the boxes for Millennials, and ranks 11th highest for positive net migration in the country. 

Orlando’s growth stems from a myriad of industries as companies focused on defense, software, cybersecurity, and fintech enter or expand in the market. The new jobs fuel even more housing demand in an already tight market that has less than three months of supply of resale inventory. 

"This is an opportunity for builders in Orlando who are able to secure lots in the near-term,"

Kristine Smale, Senior VP, Advisory, Meyers Research

According to Zonda, for-sale attached product consistently represents roughly 15% of the total new housing stock. Kristine expects more attached product with modern design near employment centers in the future as these cities work to keep up with population growth and the expectations that come with being technology hubs.  

Contact us to discuss finding the best opportunities in growing US metros

Ali Wolf

Director, Economic Research

Ali Wolf

Director, Economic Research


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