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Rani Salehi
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Jan 09, 2018

Zonda

We Can’t Believe How High The Meyers Index Is!

Our latest Meyers Index shows market strength across the country with our national index hitting the highest level ever. Dallas, Houston, and Orlando remain the strongest CBSAs based on local housing and economic fundamentals. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, San Jose’s index value grew 7.3%, Riverside’s increased 7.2%, and Sacramento’s rose 6.5%. Outside of California, fundamentals in markets like Naples, Richmond, and Raleigh picked up steam over the past quarter, growing 5.8%, 5.1%, and 4.2%, respectively. On the whole, we are encouraged by the strength exhibited across core and non-core markets.

The Highest Value We’ve Seen All Year

Source:  Zonda by Meyers Research. Index as of October 2017. Analysis as of January 2018.

The US index made one of its most spectacular gains in October, increasing 20 points to 583. While the index has been relatively flat over the past year, the current value is the highest we have seen.

While the September index fell by an unsurprising 12 points largely due to jobs, the October index growth was fueled by 3 substantive factors: job growth, new sales, and permits.

 

Our Top CBSA Highlights

The top 4 states all made more than 10 point gains. As discussed below, however, each has its own story. While the remainder of the top states experienced either modest gains or modest declines, several reached index highs.

 

Much-watched Houston Declines. Houston ranks second across all the metros, but was the only large market to decline. This is the first time that the Houston index has fallen (slightly) below the TX one.

Dallas Job Growth Hits New Highs. Our top metro reached 966, climbed substantively by 22 points driven primarily by significant job growth, with permits also contributing. While Dallas’ job growth is currently close to its likely maximum (and displays some volatility), permits are continuing a secular increase.

Phoenix (#14) Holds Steady. Although Phoenix is not on the top 10, it has held steady at a level slightly above the reasonably flat level since late 2015.

Portland, Washington DC, and New York have current index values exceeding the US Index value of 583.

Las Vegas is now just below the US index, but is has reached an index high following a relatively flat period that goes back to mid-2013, prior to which point it had been rising sharply.

Minneapolis (#32) Is Worthy of Special Note. While it decreased somewhat in the past several months, Minneapolis still benefits from moving to a substantively higher level of permits since mid-2016.

About Meyers Index

The Meyers Index is a single score between 0 and 1,000 to help you understand the health of the housing market at both U.S. and regional levels. Think of the Index as a quick economic and housing snapshot.

How did we get this number? Rick Peiser, Real Estate & Urban Development Professor at Harvard Design School and Henry Pollakowski, Urban & Housing Economist at Harvard University have been working with Zonda to aggregate and weigh key housing data such as price appreciation, sales activity, demographic growth, household income levels, school scores, and affordability to interpret the strength of the housing market.

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Ali Wolf

Director, Economic Research


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