May 29, 2019

Housing Trends

America, Welcome To Your New Home: The South

Population flow across the country can influence housing demand and drive economic growth. For example, Las Vegas, Austin, and Jacksonville hold the top spots for positive net migration and are also among the top performing housing markets so far this year. 80% of the top net migration markets fall in just four states, Texas, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina.

blog-migration-patterns-hero

The markets with the highest rate of positive net migration—meaning more people move in than out—have been surprisingly consistent over the past six years. The population growth in these (largely) geographically-concentrated metros has both housing and economic implications. We analyzed the migration trends over time and highlight the takeaways.

Of the ten markets with the most positive domestic net migration*:

  • All are in more southern states, with Nashville being the northern-most point
  • 50% are on the East Coast 
  • Texas, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina are home to two of the top ten each
  • Phoenix, the fourth highest for net migration, is the largest as the 11th most populous metro in the country. Tucson, the other Arizona market, broke into the top 10 for net migration this year and is the smallest, landing as the 53rd most populous metro in the US.

2017-2018 Net Migration

In-Migration Meets Housing Strength

Las Vegas, Austin, and Jacksonville hold the top spots for positive net migration and are also among the top performing housing markets so far this year. 

Las Vegas is the new #1. Las Vegas has been in the top ten for positive net migration since 2013, gradually moving up. For 2018, Las Vegas bumped Austin, the reigning champ for five consecutive years, down to the second spot. Las Vegas averages about 100 people moving to the metro a day and Redfin search data suggests the new residents are coming mostly from the West Coast, including Los Angeles, the Bay Area, and Portland. This contributed to Las Vegas having one of the best average sales rates per community in 2019, at 3.06, according to Zonda.

Las Vegas In-Migration

100

Avg. People Per Day

Austin hits the relative affordability sweet spot. Austin’s new home communities have the biggest year-over-year jump in average sales rate among top markets year-to-date, up 19% from the same period in 2018. The average new home list price in the metro of $328,000 is 26% higher than the average of the 10 best-selling new home communities over the past three months. In the metro, nearly 61% of households can afford the median-priced new home, a relatively high percentage compared to other top markets due, in part, to two reasons: 

  • Inbound Austin residents are from expensive coastal cities like New York, DC, Seattle, Los Angeles, and the Bay Area.
  • The metro leads the nation in business service job count, up 37% since 2012. These jobs tend to be highly paid.
Austin Avg Sales Rate

+19%

Year Over Year

Jacksonville’s fourth year in the top 10. Jacksonville first appeared on the list four years ago at the fifth spot before moving up to number three last year. The market averages nearly 60 people moving in a day, up 6% from last year. Like Austin, this trend has aided Jacksonville to a place amongst the biggest growth markets year-to-date with an average sales rate of 1.82 per community, up 8% YOY. 

Jacksonville Avg Sales Rate

+8%

Year Over Year

 

Winners (And Some Losers) Of Migration Trends

The data allows for trends to be seen in multiple categories, including daily, international, and negative net migration. Here are some other notable takeaways from the newly released stats: 

Consistently in the top 10. 50% of the top net migration markets have been the same over the past six years, including Austin, Raleigh, Nashville, San Antonio, and Charlotte. Orlando, Las Vegas, and Tampa have made the list five out of six times.

Most daily net migration. Dallas and Phoenix have had the highest daily net migration over the past three years. Tampa held the third spot the past two years before Las Vegas bumped it to fourth last year.

Top international locations. The inbound international locations have barely changed over the past six years with Miami, San Jose, Orlando, DC, San Francisco, Boston, Seattle, and Houston making the top ten every year. Tampa moved into the top ten for the first time last year, pushing New York out.

Negative net migration. San Jose, New York, Miami, LA, and Chicago are seeing the biggest negative net migration trends. New York is losing 600 people on average per day, LA: 300, Chicago: 230, Miami: 130, and San Jose: 70.

 


* The net migration statistics look at the change in population from July to June of the measured years. The markets we analyzed have a population of 1 million+. 

Contact us to discuss what these trends mean for your business.

Featured Writers

We cover topics around housing, policy, markets, and technology.

Ali Wolf

Director, Economic Research

Ali Wolf

Director, Economic Research


Recommended Posts

Services Information Request

You’re on your way to meeting our team! We’ll be in touch soon to help push your business forward.
By clicking this button, you agree to our
Terms & Privacy Policy

Tech Services Sign Up

You’re on your way to meeting our team! We’ll be in touch soon to help push your business forward.
By clicking this button, you agree to our
Terms & Privacy Policy

Zonda Information Request

You’re on your way to meeting our team! We’ll be in touch soon to help push your business forward.
By clicking this button, you agree to our
Terms & Privacy Policy

Newsletter Sign Up

Get housing market updates, new blog posts and event alerts. We'll keep you up to date with the latest news.
By clicking this button, you agree to our
Terms & Privacy Policy

Learn More About Our Products & Services

You’re on your way to meeting our team! We’ll be in touch soon to help push your business forward.
By clicking this button, you agree to our
Terms & Privacy Policy